La Liga Predictions Today

Rayo Vallecano 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 matches (1.14 scored, 1.14 conceded per game). Girona 2W 1D 4L from their last 7 (1.14 / 1.14 per game). At home specifically, Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. On the road, Girona are averaging 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.09 for Girona (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 48% Rayo Vallecano, 28% draw, 24% Girona. Rayo Vallecano are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Celta 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 matches (1.5 scored, 1.75 conceded per game). Levante 4W 2D 2L from their last 8 (1.5 / 1.5 per game). At home specifically, Celta are averaging 2.00 scored and 2.67 conceded. On the road, Levante are averaging 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded. The model projects 2.65 expected goals for Celta and 1.02 for Levante (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 71% Celta, 18% draw, 12% Levante. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (71%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (60%).

Real Betis 2W 5D 1L in their last 8 matches (1.5 scored, 1.13 conceded per game). Elche 4W 1D 3L from their last 8 (1.38 / 1.63 per game). At home specifically, Real Betis are averaging 1.25 scored and 0.50 conceded. On the road, Elche are averaging 1.00 scored and 2.25 conceded. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Real Betis and 0.86 for Elche (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 52% Real Betis, 28% draw, 19% Elche. Real Betis are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Osasuna 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 matches (1.25 scored, 1.63 conceded per game). Atleti 3W 0D 5L from their last 8 (1.5 / 1.63 per game). At home specifically, Osasuna are averaging 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded. On the road, Atleti are averaging 1.75 scored and 2.00 conceded. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.32 for Atleti (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 39% Osasuna, 28% draw, 33% Atleti. Osasuna are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Espanyol 0W 2D 6L in their last 8 matches (0.5 scored, 1.63 conceded per game). Athletic 3W 0D 5L from their last 8 (1.25 / 1.75 per game). At home specifically, Espanyol are averaging 0.33 scored and 1.33 conceded. On the road, Athletic are averaging 1.50 scored and 2.50 conceded. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Espanyol and 1.59 for Athletic (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 36% Espanyol, 26% draw, 38% Athletic. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (61%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (64%). Athletic have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Villarreal 4W 3D 1L in their last 8 matches (1.88 scored, 1 conceded per game). Sevilla FC 3W 0D 5L from their last 8 (1 / 1.75 per game). At home specifically, Villarreal are averaging 3.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. On the road, Sevilla FC are averaging 0.75 scored and 2.50 conceded. The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.81 for Sevilla FC (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 73% Villarreal, 17% draw, 9% Sevilla FC. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (65%) — look at the goals markets.

Alavés 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 matches (2 scored, 2.13 conceded per game). Barça 8W 0D 0L from their last 8 (2.38 / 0.63 per game). At home specifically, Alavés are averaging 1.75 scored and 2.00 conceded. On the road, Barça are averaging 2.00 scored and 0.67 conceded. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Alavés and 1.86 for Barça (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 29% Alavés, 25% draw, 46% Barça. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (65%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (66%). Barça have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Getafe 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 matches (0.63 scored, 0.88 conceded per game). Mallorca 4W 2D 2L from their last 8 (1.5 / 1 per game). At home specifically, Getafe are averaging 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded. On the road, Mallorca are averaging 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Getafe and 1.23 for Mallorca (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 29% Getafe, 32% draw, 39% Mallorca. Under 2.5 carries 61% — a low-scoring affair is projected. Mallorca have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.