Free La Liga predictions for today. Expert analysis of Spanish football with form data, BTTS rates, Over/Under tips, and predicted scores for every La Liga fixture.
19:00 GMT
69%
Real Betis
LWW
Most Likely Score
1-3
Away Win
Real Madrid
WWW
14%
Home
16%
Draw · xG 4.53
69%
Away
Match Result
Real Madrid to Win
69%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
83%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
73%
Full Analysis
Real Betis 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 matches (1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded per game). Real Madrid 3W 0D 0L from their last 3 (3.33 / 0.67 per game). The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Real Betis and 3.09 for Real Madrid (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 14% Real Betis, 16% draw, 69% Real Madrid. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (83%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (73%).
14:15 GMT
49%
Athletic
WLL
Most Likely Score
1-1
Home Win
Atleti
WDW
49%
Home
27%
Draw · xG 2.74
23%
Away
Double Chance
Athletic or Draw
77%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
55%
Full Analysis
Athletic 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 matches (1 scored, 1.67 conceded per game). Atleti 2W 1D 0L from their last 3 (2.33 / 1 per game). The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Athletic and 1.08 for Atleti (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 49% Athletic, 27% draw, 23% Atleti. Athletic are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.
16:30 GMT
89%
Rayo Vallecano
LDL
Most Likely Score
4-0
Home Win
Santander
WLD
89%
Home
8%
Draw · xG 5.21
4%
Away
Match Result
Rayo Vallecano to Win
89%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
88%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
61%
Full Analysis
Rayo Vallecano 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 matches (1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded per game). Santander 1W 1D 1L from their last 3 (1.67 / 1.67 per game). The model projects 4.24 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.97 for Santander (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 89% Rayo Vallecano, 8% draw, 4% Santander. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (88%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (61%).
19:00 GMT
93%
Villarreal
LDD
Most Likely Score
4-0
Home Win
Deportivo
WDD
93%
Home
5%
Draw · xG 5.66
2%
Away
Match Result
Villarreal to Win
93%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
91%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
57%
Full Analysis
Villarreal 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 matches (1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded per game). Deportivo 1W 2D 0L from their last 3 (1.67 / 1 per game). The model projects 4.80 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.86 for Deportivo (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 93% Villarreal, 5% draw, 2% Deportivo. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (91%) — look at the goals markets.
14:15 GMT
45%
Valencia
LLD
Most Likely Score
1-1
Away Win
Barça
WWW
27%
Home
28%
Draw · xG 2.78
45%
Away
Double Chance
Barça or Draw
73%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
57%
Full Analysis
Valencia 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 matches (0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded per game). Barça 3W 0D 0L from their last 3 (4 / 0.67 per game). At home specifically, Valencia are averaging 0.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Valencia and 1.58 for Barça (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 27% Valencia, 28% draw, 45% Barça. Barça have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.
16:30 GMT
49%
Alavés
WDW
Most Likely Score
1-1
Home Win
Osasuna
WWD
49%
Home
27%
Draw · xG 2.71
23%
Away
Double Chance
Alavés or Draw
77%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
54%
Full Analysis
Alavés 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 matches (1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded per game). Osasuna 2W 1D 0L from their last 3 (1 / 0.33 per game). At home specifically, Alavés are averaging 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Alavés and 1.07 for Osasuna (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 49% Alavés, 27% draw, 23% Osasuna. Alavés are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.
16:30 GMT
59%
Málaga
LDL
Most Likely Score
1-1
Home Win
Levante
WDL
59%
Home
25%
Draw · xG 2.78
16%
Away
Match Result
Málaga to Win
59%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
52%
Full Analysis
Málaga 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 matches (0.33 scored, 2.33 conceded per game). Levante 1W 1D 1L from their last 3 (1.67 / 1.67 per game). On the road, Levante are averaging 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Málaga and 0.90 for Levante (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 59% Málaga, 25% draw, 16% Levante.
19:00 GMT
56%
Espanyol
LLW
Most Likely Score
1-1
Home Win
Sevilla FC
LWW
56%
Home
26%
Draw · xG 2.63
18%
Away
Match Result
Espanyol to Win
56%
Over/Under Goals
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — No
50%
Full Analysis
Espanyol 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 matches (1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded per game). Sevilla FC 2W 0D 1L from their last 3 (2 / 1.67 per game). At home specifically, Espanyol are averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Espanyol and 0.89 for Sevilla FC (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 56% Espanyol, 26% draw, 18% Sevilla FC.
La Liga Predictions — How We Analyse
Our La Liga predictions are generated using real match data from the current season. We analyse each team's last 5 results to calculate form points, goals per game, clean sheet rates, and BTTS percentages. Home advantage is factored as a statistical bonus for the host team.
