Free Serie A predictions for today. Data-driven Italian football tips with team form, BTTS analysis, Over/Under 2.5 goals predictions, and expert scoreline forecasts.
18:45 GMT
40%
Napoli
DWLDWWW
Most Likely Score
1-1
Home Win
Bologna
DLLWWLW
40%
Home
32%
Draw ยท xG 2.24
28%
Away
Double Chance
Napoli or Draw
72%
Over/Under Goals
Under 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score โ No
53%
Full Analysis
Napoli 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 matches (1.29 scored, 0.57 conceded per game). Bologna 3W 1D 3L from their last 7 (0.71 / 1 per game). At home specifically, Napoli are averaging 1.75 scored and 0.75 conceded. On the road, Bologna are averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Napoli and 1.00 for Bologna (DixonโColes-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 40% Napoli, 32% draw, 28% Bologna. Under 2.5 carries 61% โ a low-scoring affair is projected. Napoli are favoured but it's not a banker โ Double Chance reduces the risk.
Serie A Predictions โ How We Analyse
Our Serie A predictions are generated using real match data from the current season. We analyse each team's last 5 results to calculate form points, goals per game, clean sheet rates, and BTTS percentages. Home advantage is factored as a statistical bonus for the host team.
